01 Apparel exports

China: The decline in exports widened from January to September (-2.4%, compared to -0.2% in January-June). Exports to the EU increased (+5.9%), though the growth rate moderated. Exports to the US saw a larger contraction (January-June: -1.6%, January-September: -8.2%). While exports to ASEAN countries still fell by over 10% (-17.7%), shipments to the Philippines (+6.9%), Indonesia (+19.0%), and Cambodia (+64.9%) demonstrated stronger growth performance within the year. Regarding tariffs, on October 30, China and the US agreed to lower the rates on goods subject to additional duties (effectively reducing the average tariff rate on Chinese imports to the US from about 57% to approximately 47%, though this remains significantly higher than the 19.5% overall average rate applied to other countries).

 

Vietnam: The growth rate of its apparel exports to the US—its largest market—slowed to 12.3% for January-September. However, following a reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" (from 46% to 20% effective August 7), apparel exports to the US rebounded in September, with growth for that month reaching 16.6%.

 

Bangladesh: Its export growth accelerated to +5.6% in January-September (from +4.7% in January-June). In the July-September period, exports to the US (+8.6%) outperformed those to the EU (+3.6%).

02 US Apparel imports

 

From January to July of this year (data for August and September are not available), US apparel imports from seven Asian countries increased by 5.6%. Myanmar posted the largest gain (+39.4%), while China was the only country in the group to record a decrease (-21.0%).  Vietnam ranked first in US apparel imports (accounting for 33.2% of the total from the seven Asian countries), widening the gap with China (24.3%).

03 Eurozone Apparel imports

 

From January to August, apparel imports from seven Asian countries increased by 15.1%, a deceleration of 4.4 percentage points compared to the period from January to June. Imports in August decreased by 5%. Import growth slowed in all seven countries, but Cambodia (+23.5%) still retained the largest increase (with imports still rising by 3.3% in August). China (January-August: +16.6%；August: -6.4%) remains the largest source of apparel imports (accounting for 39.1%), followed by Bangladesh (January-August: +15%； August: -6.3%) (accounting for 30.2%).

04 Economy and textile and apparel trade

Overall economy:  Economic growth in Europe and the United States is projected to moderate in the fourth quarter. Australia should retain solid growth, and New Zealand is anticipated to resume an upward trajectory.

 

 

Data sources: Growth forecast sources — United States (Federal Reserve), Eurozone (European Central Bank), Australia (Reserve Bank of Australia), New Zealand (IMF)

 

Apparel Retail: From January to August (with September data pending), sales at US apparel and accessories stores rose by 5.1%, an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points compared to the January-June period. In Australia, sales of clothing, footwear, and accessories climbed 3.6% year-on-year in September (August: +1.4%；July: +2.7%). In contrast, in New Zealand, growth in clothing, footwear, and accessories moderated to 0.3% in Q2 (Q1: +3.6%).

 

Inflation rates: Inflation expectations for the US and Australia are rising for the year; the Eurozone remains stable, while New Zealand is expected to see a gradual decrease.

 

 

Note: Inflation rates represent year-on-year changes; forecast sources: United States (Federal Reserve: PCE), Eurozone (European Central Bank), China (National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), New Zealand (IMF, Reserve Bank of New Zealand), Australia (Reserve Bank of Australia)

 

Consumer Confidence:  Except for improved consumer confidence in the Eurozone, consumer confidence generally weakened in other countries. This was mainly due to declining personal financial situations (the US), rising cost of living and policy uncertainty (Australia), and a weak job market, sluggish housing prices, and cost of living pressures (New Zealand).

 

Textile and apparel trade: Import growth in the US, the Eurozone, and Australia (including textiles and footwear), and New Zealand (including textiles) all slowed down compared to the first half of the year.  Australia’s imports of textiles, clothing, and footwear rose 7.1% year-on-year from January to September, representing a slowdown of 1.6 percentage points from the January–June period. New Zealand’s textile and apparel imports increased 2.3% year-on-year over the same nine months，a moderation of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half.

Source：Jeanswest Research Institute